Future of the hobby

[Jordan White]

It seems like a circular problem when you think about it. The companies want to sell kits to make a profit, and they basically have two main groups to market to. One side is the older crowd who love the kits they grew up with, and subjects that they grew up with, who don't care about few, if any, of today's vehicles. The other side is the younger crowd who also love the subjects they grew up with, but they are from a much more recent era and are the same ones that the older crowd generally doesn't care for. In catering to the older crowd, the companies can focus on reissues and get more of a profit from using paid-for tools, whereas with the younger crowd (which they need to continues into the future), they would, in most cases, need to create new tools of more modern subjects, which costs them money and lessens their profit.

[Art Anderson]

4 hours ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

 

Then there's this apparently much forgotten concept called "scratch-building". 

It's pretty radical, but it's where a person actually MAKES something with his hands, and no computer interface.

Modelers who are highly motivated to have something that's not easily available have been doing it since the idea dawned of making a miniature copy of a real object.

Even if all the current model companies go away, and a global EMP event wipes out computers everywhere, hands, eyes, and a functioning mind will suffice for people willing to expend the effort.

Except for one thing:  Scratchbuiding scale models has always been, and likely always be,  a very small part of this or any other scale modeling hobby.    Also, consider that any "scratchbuilding" effort involves planning, perhaps even scale drawings, then even the "art" of designing a model car body, let alone a complete kit, to be 3D printed, is closely akin to scratchbuilding, the only difference between that and "traditional" methods--the complexity and price tag of the tools, along with totally different skills needed in order to develop the software needed to instruct that 3D printer as to just how to do the job.  OK, so use 3D printing as the tooling for mass-producing new model kits?   Fine, if you want to wait a good bit of time for that new kit--an injection molding machine can kick out a fresh polystyrene model car kit in about 90-120 seconds, but having watched 3D printers in action numerous times (I work at Purdue University--perhaps all of you model car guys have heard of the place?),  in a building which houses several fine-resolution 3D printers, and I am here to tell you that it takes several hours just to print one part, be that a single part, or a "tree" with multiple pieces--a 3D printer (as today's technology stands) moves only just so fast, and I can assure you that "just so fast" would mean, for at least the foreseeable future.  Next, the cost:  All the time, I read, on this and other forums, vociferous complaints about  "the cost of a model car kit today"  (Why, I used to get a cool AMT--or name your favorite poison--kit for just $2.00 (or so) when I was growing up.  Uh, if you grew up with $2.00 (or less!) 1/25 scale model car kits, then you also grew up when a really good salary was no more than $10,000-$15,000 a year--a new 1500 sq ft house might have set you back (in most parts of the US--California excepted!) perhaps $35,000 or so, on-and-on.

Many, but NOT all of you, know that I've been involved, somewhat directly, in EVERY Moebius model car kit (even a couple of Polar Lights back 12-13 yrs ago) model car kits during their development--currently in the midst of the development of their 1965-66 Ford F-100 series of 1/25 scale model kits.  I've been on this one since day one--I assisted, on a very busy Saturday, 300+ miles away (more than 400 miles for Dave!) to measure, and photograph, some 6 of this vintage pickup--and no matter how many pictures, and how many measurements (an analog carpenter's rule, with every other inch blacked out, told us exactly just how many scale inches any and every dimension needed!), and even at that, when we'd seen the CAD files, AND the 3D scans, no matter how closely and intensely we looked at them, once test shots had been done (requires cutting steel tooling to get those, BTW), we saw discrepancies which did not show up to our eyes in the tooling mockups (which were 3D printed, BTW!).  AND, I have not addressed the matter of body side trim, and oh yeah, those fiddly little badges and scripts--trust me, those do not easily come about when a tooling mockup (itself a 3D printed model kit part) is printed, only in the horizontal plane--but in our game, that is to be expected--some fine detailing of a steel tool still has to be done analog--a highly qualified, jewelry-capable sculptor working his tiny version of a Dremel, free-hand, in a process that is as old as injection-molding model car kit tooling itself.  Now, how many "civilian" model car builders have both the hand/eye skills, and the tools to do that?.

OK, now I have ranted enough--about stuff that many of you here (and on other model car message forums) probably don't want to hear, OK?  But trust me,  this IS a major part of any story as to just how any model kit gets developed--and it is NOT within the realm of possibility for the vast majority of us model car builders, OK, nor--I predict--not even close to the ballpark for any of us, perhaps not our descendants, in our lifetimes.

 

[Art Anderson]

20 minutes ago, Jordan White said:

It seems like a circular problem when you think about it. The companies want to sell kits to make a profit, and they basically have two main groups to market to. One side is the older crowd who love the kits they grew up with, and subjects that they grew up with, who don't care about few, if any, of today's vehicles. The other side is the younger crowd who also love the subjects they grew up with, but they are from a much more recent era and are the same ones that the older crowd generally doesn't care for. In catering to the older crowd, the companies can focus on reissues and get more of a profit from using paid-for tools, whereas with the younger crowd (which they need to continues into the future), they would, in most cases, need to create new tools of more modern subjects, which costs them money and lessens their profit.

Jordan, an EXCELLENT point!  If I might add, this and that other major model car forum, Spotlight, is mostly populated with modelers in their 40's to nearly 80 now- (I'll be 74 in just two months!), who remember, and pine for, that yet-to-be-done model kit of that special car of our youth, back when we were really young.  But the real fly in the ointment, or so it seems to me, is that today's younger--potential--model car builder more than likely is not going to be interested in cars of the 1950's or 1960's, no more than we were as 12-16 yr old kids were, in cars of the 1920's or 30's (unless they were hot rod, or drag car subjects!)--even drag racing today is a sport that seems to cater to adults, some of us of somewhat advanced age--rather than the upcoming generation.  And yet, this forum, as well as just about every other model car building forum out there, is populated mostly with guys who are either approaching middle age, or all the way out to approaching being super annuated (OLD, in other words). Model car kits of the latest, and greatest of modern cars do keep being done--but not for us, primarily the US market:  Exactly why, I do not have that answer, but yet in other countries, other continents, kits of such subjects seem to do pretty well--perhaps that is due to a difference in the average age of model car builders overseas, or is it?  DAMFINO.  I would suggest this, however:  IF this planet is still live and inhabited with humans still affluent enough as to afford a hobby, as 'frivolous" as model car building, by mid-21st Century, then there will be model car builders, and who knows, some of those future modelers will be looking back at the majority of us--one can only hope with respect.

 

[jeffdeoranut]

some thoughts...for much of America the love affair with the auto is over for many of the same reasons that church attendance is down, far less children play outside everyday-the world is changing.  even in my teenage years(70's) you could buy a running car for 100 bucks and insurance was not mandatory.  how did I earn the 100 bucks? by working on the farm for 2.25/hr.  now try to find a car for less than 1000 bucks-insurance on a teen is at least 100 bucks a month.  why did teens want cars or go to church prior to the advent of social media?  to meet other boys and girls!!  in my day if a guy didn't have access to a car-NO GIRL WOULD BE SEEN WITH HIM.  and all of us guys cleaned our cars and made them shine-hotrodders made them fast.  people noticed if you put on white letter tires or new rims.  young people don't own cars now-why would they want to build models-cars don't mean that much to them as they can interact with others thru social media...I never kissed a girl in front of my parents until I was married-now many teens in my area are allowed to have their bf/gf spend the nite with them in their parents house so why do they need a car?

the hobby will never completely die out but it will continue to diminish.

[DiscoRover007]

I am a younger person in the hobby and to me the problem is that companies like Revell don't offer enough modern selections. Nearly every year was a reissue of old kits, or some obscure kit that (might) guarantee  buyers but did nothing to interest new people. There are so many newer subjects just waiting to be kitted and would likely be big sellers if they just made them. It doesn't always have to  be a super car either. How about an 2008 TSX? A true 2004 Mustang? Latest gen  Eclipse?, Some cool 4x4s, Xterra, Land Rover Discovery, Jeep Grand Cherokee?  Popular cars all over the road with no  kits of them...

Tamiya does a fairly good job of keeping a contemporary selection but even they could kit some new stuff. Aoshima has done a great job of late on delivering kits that people have been longing for.

The hobby in general is odd for most people in todays time. Its not instant gratification and to be good at it takes a lot of time, skill, and patience. That won't change, but as long as they make new kits that actually interest people it will stick around.

Edited May 11, 2018 by DiscoRover007

[Snake45]

In my whole life, I've only met one serious modeler who built his first model as an adult. Everyone else--EVERY ONE, in both the model car and model airplane hobbies--started building as a kid, in the 1950s, '60s, '70, even some in the '80s and early '90s. We are an aging hobby, and we are dying out and dropping off. 

How many kids have started building/buying models in the last, say, 20 years? Not very many, proportionally. Not nearly enough to sustain the hobby 20 or 30 years from now the way we know it today. 

[ewetwo]

You are right Snake. There is no one around me building and to get models. I have to relie on the internet as the only hobby store is Hobby Lobby for me. And that is 45 miles away. And they are limited at that.

[Tom Geiger]

9 hours ago, niteowl7710 said:

Why on earth would younger people want to hang out with a bunch of cranky fuddy-duddies?  I think Diversified Scalerz and their show proves they don't want to hang out with that crowd in person, let alone online.  

You are so far off base!  The Diversified Scalerz and Tri-State Scale Model Club have a relationship.  You will see their members, who are also members of our club, working at NNL East.  They were at our club meeting the week before the show, helping to stuff the goody bags.  You will see TSSMCC guys working their show in September.  Maybe you noticed their large diorama and display at NNL East the past few years.  If you saw the improved AV and large screen TV at NNL East this year, that was provided by the Diversified guys.

This group of great younger guys has gone way out of their way to be part of the organized hobby in this area.  They attend every show in the region and are friendly and approachable.   Their show had been held in a smaller hall until last September when they stepped up to be in the Wayne PAL Building.  Let's just say that our aging herd did not respond as well as we would have liked.  Their response was to make this year's theme "All American Muscle Car 1967-72" to show that they are open to everyone. 

So it's up to our over 60 demographic to respond.  We all whine that the hobby is dying, but these young guys  are extending their hands in friendship.  So it's up to us all to respond accordingly.  Be there on September 29th.

[Snake45]

56 minutes ago, ewetwo said:

You are right Snake. There is no one around me building and to get models. I have to relie on the internet as the only hobby store is Hobby Lobby for me. And that is 45 miles away. And they are limited at that.

I'm in the same boat, old friend, except my HL is only about 10-15 miles away. I also have an AC Moore and a Michaels which are occasionally useful. Last week I got a Revell '62 Corvette at AC Moore with a 50% off coupon, and they told me to take an online survey to get a 55% off coupon, which I did, and hope to get a Revell '32 Ford 5-window with that tomorrow. 

About a month ago, my son, who's just under 30, told me one of his old high school runnin' buddies wanted to come over and talk model cars with me. This kid's dad has always been into REAL cars and they've restored a '69 AMX and a '74 Corvette, among a few others. Anyway, he brought over some of his stuff to show me. I wasn't expecting much but was EXTREMELY impressed with his work. He airbrushes and his finishes are as good as anything I've ever done--and he doesn't even polish them out, he's getting a fabulous natural gloss!   He's also mastered removing mold lines and flash. I was able to give him some pointers on scribing out door lines, and using foil, and a few little things like that, but he is WELL on his way. (Yes, he started modeling as a kid, in the '90s.) 

But he's the only "young person" I know in modeling. Everyone else seems to be on the bad side of 55, including me. 

[Jon Cole]

The hobby is slowing down. But it's not in a death spiral. No need to start digging a grave.

Lot of good comments here.

About the "new kits to last a lifetime" thought, I am more concerned about the building supplies availability. Is Testors cancelling some types of paint? Hate to see the assortment of supplies thin down.

[Art Anderson]

21 minutes ago, Jon Cole said:

The hobby is slowing down. But it's not in a death spiral. No need to start digging a grave.

Lot of good comments here.

About the "new kits to last a lifetime" thought, I am more concerned about the building supplies availability. Is Testors cancelling some types of paint? Hate to see the assortment of supplies thin down.

Well, if something isn't selling that much anymore, why make more of it?  Some of us still remember when the square-bottle Testors paint lineup was a full SEVENTY FIVE colors, most of which declined in sales a few decades ago.

 

[Art Anderson]

2 hours ago, Snake45 said:

In my whole life, I've only met one serious modeler who built his first model as an adult. Everyone else--EVERY ONE, in both the model car and model airplane hobbies--started building as a kid, in the 1950s, '60s, '70, even some in the '80s and early '90s. We are an aging hobby, and we are dying out and dropping off. 

How many kids have started building/buying models in the last, say, 20 years? Not very many, proportionally. Not nearly enough to sustain the hobby 20 or 30 years from now the way we know it today. 

But, back in the 1950's, what was the latest "hi tech" craze for 10-11 yr olds?  Plastic model kits!  I rest my case.

Art

[Snake45]

35 minutes ago, Jon Cole said:

About the "new kits to last a lifetime" thought, I am more concerned about the building supplies availability. Is Testors cancelling some types of paint? Hate to see the assortment of supplies thin down.

Ain't it the truth! Paint availability is my current #1 problem and far and away my #1 future fear. 

[Snake45]

12 minutes ago, Art Anderson said:

But, back in the 1950's, what was the latest "hi tech" craze for 10-11 yr olds?  Plastic model kits!  I rest my case.

Art

But before that, plenty of kids were building model airplanes out of balsa and tissue, and airplanes, cars, and ships out of solid wood. 

Most kids today aren't interested in anything more complicated than a Lego kit they can get together in 20 minutes. Can't be off their phones too long--someone else somewhere is doing something FAR more interesting, dontcha know! 

[iamsuperdan]

1 hour ago, Tom Geiger said:

You are so far off base!  The Diversified Scalerz and Tri-State Scale Model Club have a relationship.  You will see their members, who are also members of our club, working at NNL East.  They were at our club meeting the week before the show, helping to stuff the goody bags.  You will see TSSMCC guys working their show in September.  Maybe you noticed their large diorama and display at NNL East the past few years.  If you saw the improved AV and large screen TV at NNL East this year, that was provided by the Diversified guys.

This group of great younger guys has gone way out of their way to be part of the organized hobby in this area.  They attend every show in the region and are friendly and approachable.   Their show had been held in a smaller hall until last September when they stepped up to be in the Wayne PAL Building.  Let's just say that our aging herd did not respond as well as we would have liked.  Their response was to make this year's theme "All American Muscle Car 1967-72" to show that they are open to everyone. 

So it's up to our over 60 demographic to respond.  We all whine that the hobby is dying, but these young guys  are extending their hands in friendship.  So it's up to us all to respond accordingly.  Be there on September 29th.

 

I wish we had some shows up here like that! 

[Ace-Garageguy]

11 hours ago, Art Anderson said:

... Scratchbuiding scale models has always been, and likely always be,  a very small part of this or any other scale modeling hobby....

Well, not in the beginning.

I have early issues of Model Railroader from the late 1930s and virtually EVERYTHING was scratch-built.

Kits and RTR (ready-to-run) equipment opened the hobby up to many less-skilled, and that's fine.

Bit what I was actually responding to is the hand-wringing about suppliers and kit manufacturers going away.

Even if they DO, the people who really want to build models will continue, just as they always have.

This 7-inch long model dates from the 5th or 4th century BC.

                            

 

[Richard Bartrop]

And as far as scratchbuilding goes, you have a lot more tools and materials available than they had back in the day.  It may not be easy, but it is easier.

[Aaronw]

People need to get out of their bubbles.

You go to aircraft and armor sites and the reaction to Revell's situation is "so what they haven't made any new kits in like 20 years". Over here the sky is falling because Hobbico (not Revell) is bankrupt, but if you look outside of Revell models are booming. There have been loads of "they'll never kit that" kits in the past 10 years (and still coming). People are having to look for really obscure stuff these days to make joke kit request references. It seems like there is a new model company or two popping up every year.

There are companies like ICM and Meng that have focused on military subjects now beyond the sticking a toe in the water of 1/24 model cars. Modern(ish) Ford F250, Hummer H1, Jeep Wrangler, how many new Model T's? and several 1940s European cars.

 

The fat lady hasn't even left her house yet.

  

[Greg Myers]

The fat lady hasn't even left her house yet.

[Richard Bartrop]

8 hours ago, Aaronw said:

People need to get out of their bubbles.

You go to aircraft and armor sites and the reaction to Revell's situation is "so what they haven't made any new kits in like 20 years". Over here the sky is falling because Hobbico (not Revell) is bankrupt, but if you look outside of Revell models are booming. There have been loads of "they'll never kit that" kits in the past 10 years (and still coming). People are having to look for really obscure stuff these days to make joke kit request references. It seems like there is a new model company or two popping up every year.

There are companies like ICM and Meng that have focused on military subjects now beyond the sticking a toe in the water of 1/24 model cars. Modern(ish) Ford F250, Hummer H1, Jeep Wrangler, how many new Model T's? and several 1940s European cars.

 

The fat lady hasn't even left her house yet.

  

that's the flaw with groups like this.  As comforting as it is to hang out with people who share your interests, they also end up the intellectual equivalent of letting cousins marry.

[OldTrucker]

I actually find myself at stores and on line looking at kits and have been able to walk away without buying a kit even though I see some I would like to have.

Come to the realization that the world will come to an end before I ever finish what I have in the closet!

[SfanGoch]

Like Aaron pointed out, car modelers seem to be the only group bemoaning the future extinction of this genre. Everybody else has proclaimed the past few years as the new Golden Age of modeling. The proliferation of new companies bold enough to produce odd and obscure armor/aircraft subjects is amazing and most welcome. Revell and AMT, for example, should take their cue from the likes of Takom, Meng, Rye Field, etc.

[Art Anderson]

On 5/12/2018 at 12:18 AM, Ace-Garageguy said:

Well, not in the beginning.

I have early issues of Model Railroader from the late 1930s and virtually EVERYTHING was scratch-built.

Kits and RTR (ready-to-run) equipment opened the hobby up to many less-skilled, and that's fine.

Bit what I was actually responding to is the hand-wringing about suppliers and kit manufacturers going away.

Even if they DO, the people who really want to build models will continue, just as they always have.

This 7-inch long model dates from the 5th or 4th century BC.

                            

 

True, on Model Railroader, but then, someplace, I have a Walther's Catalogue, from 1940 (the year that the late William K. Walthers started his company--met him personally in 1965, when he visited here, was a guest of the Purdue University Model RR Club), and yes, that catalog was nothing but parts--save for manufactured freight car trucks, and some rather crude couplers, that was about it.  I also have a kit, all wood stock (none precut) with molded plastic wheel/tire units, along with a molded plastic radiator and steering wheel, a kit of the legendary Locomobile "Old 16", produced by Oscar Kovaleski Sr--who with his son Oscar Jr, founded the now legendary "Auto World"  (whose catalogs fascinated thousands of Baby Boom kids back in the 1960's).  I watched my older brother, John, as he built up a bunch of the old ACE hot rod kits (balsa blocks with spruce sheet for the body sides) and cheap bakelite wheels, when I was no more than 4 or 5  (he was 12-13 at the time--by the time I was old enough to even think of building stuff, those ACE kits were long gone).

aRT

 

[Art Anderson]

42 minutes ago, SfanGoch said:

Like Aaron pointed out, car modelers seem to be the only group bemoaning the future extinction of this genre. Everybody else has proclaimed the past few years as the new Golden Age of modeling. The proliferation of new companies bold enough to produce odd and obscure armor/aircraft subjects is amazing and most welcome. Revell and AMT, for example, should take their cue from the likes of Takom, Meng, Rye Field, etc.

Face it guys, our hobby is no longer the province of the 11-15yr old age group, in fact it hasn't been since at least the middle 1970's or so.  There is an "age of entry" though, albeit nowhere near as huge, but passionate nonetheless--about 20yrs old or so (Junior, our model car club's youngest member notwithstanding--but then, for him it's a family thing, Dad, Mom and his 16yr old sister all build as well).  Around here, it seems that the "age of entry" into all forms of scale modeling is late teens to early 20's, not surprising given that while once upon a time, our two local hobby stores were located downtown--a nickel bus ride for a kid, or even easy for kids to reach by bicycle.  Today, however, our LHS is on a 4-lane thoroughfare, which has no sidewalks, not even a true bike lane--it's reachable by CityBus, but even that has but one stop, that being in the driveway leading to one of our multi-screen movie theaters, and you have to dodge 40-45mph traffic to cross the street to that hobby shop.  Once inside, to get to the plastic model department,  one has to walk past a counter-top display of no less than 30-35 RC offroad truck models, along with all the parts and accessories, but still, whenever I go into RC Hobbies Plus, there is at least one kid, in the perfect age range for starting to build, back there scoping out the model kits--but almost always, no parent willing to sacrifice a Saturday night once a month, to transport his/her son to our model car club meetings (no matter the sheer number of glossy-finished Lafayette Miniature Car Club Cards I've handed out over the years!).

But this does not mean that today's kids don't appreciate scale models, as they certainly do.  Back in November, I was starting to mentor my youngest grand-nephew Jacob, just turned 8, in second grade--due to his Dad's preoccupation with Jake's mother's terminal cancer.  For his second grade class, having the first unit of American History to study,  I helped Jake build up the old Monogram 1903 Wright Flyer, and look up the story of that plane, and when it first flew (6 days before my Dad, Jake's Great Grandfather, was born!).  It was really something for this old, white-haired greatuncle to sit in the back of that private school classroom, and listen to Jake tell the story (even down to the birthdate of the great-grandfather that he never got to see).  HIS hands built that model, which is really quite easy, but an 8yr old does need some guidance!, the only thing I added for it was to do all the rigging of the bracing wires.  That airplane, and Jake's scrawled report on it, are still ensconced in one of the showcases at Lafayette Christian School, where I pick him up every afternoon, to take him to his dad's cabinet shop after school).  Who knows, perhaps next year or the year after, he and I might have to do a model car, again as a school project, or better yet, just for fun!  Oh, and later this summer, I probably will take him to his first model car show, someplace.

Art

Edited May 13, 2018 by Art Anderson

[Art Anderson]

10 hours ago, Aaronw said:

People need to get out of their bubbles.

You go to aircraft and armor sites and the reaction to Revell's situation is "so what they haven't made any new kits in like 20 years". Over here the sky is falling because Hobbico (not Revell) is bankrupt, but if you look outside of Revell models are booming. There have been loads of "they'll never kit that" kits in the past 10 years (and still coming). People are having to look for really obscure stuff these days to make joke kit request references. It seems like there is a new model company or two popping up every year.

There are companies like ICM and Meng that have focused on military subjects now beyond the sticking a toe in the water of 1/24 model cars. Modern(ish) Ford F250, Hummer H1, Jeep Wrangler, how many new Model T's? and several 1940s European cars.

 

The fat lady hasn't even left her house yet.

  

And just to think--I just got done convincing Dave Metzner that the windshield shape of the upcoming Moebius '65-'66 Ford F-100 kit required serious revision.  Years pass, times change,  model companies evolve, but I'm here to say guys:  "The fat lady has yet to screech that high note that shatters the crystal goblet"!!!

Art