Proof that times are changing in the Collectible Car Market.

[stavanzer]

I've been saying for the last 10 years, that the 1960s-1970s Muscle Cars and older collectible cars are headed for a huge drop in prices, and value, due to demographic changes in the Market. Here is some proof. It turns out, that the age of the enthusiast, dictates the value of the Car..... Who'd have guessed.

For the effects of this on the Model Business, see recent comments on various threads by Justin Porter about what kind of Car kits sell well in his hobby shop, & comments by Commenter "Mozzi" about his experiences with his children and their friends about what Cars the younger generations deem, "Hot". Unless a '60s or '70s car has a Movie/TV Franchise supporting it, it is going to be harder and harder for the big model companies to justify the cost of cutting new tooling for vehicles of that vintage. I'm not predicting that it won't happen, I'm just saying the numbers have to pencil out, before it happens. And expect Nu-Nu, Beemax, Tamiya and others, to devote more tooling money to the 1980's and 1990's cars that constitute the "Nostalgia Cars" for today's Younger Buyers, along with the Modern Racing subjects that seems to be hot right now.

For those of us who are older or prefer older subject matter, I suspect we'll be buying more kits from Round2 and Atlantis,as they focus more of their business model on older kits.

Millennials Begin Influencing Classic Car Auctions As Baby Boomers Take Hit On Old Packards 

by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, Aug 27, 2024 - 02:20 PM

Baby boomers are holding the bag in the classic car market. These folks first began retiring in the early 2000s—right before the GFC—and some were on buying sprees for classic automobiles, such as Packard Roadsters and Ford Thunderbirds. Fast-forward to 2024, and the classic car choices of baby boomers did not rub off on GenXers and millennials, as youngsters overwhelmingly prefer cars from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, such as 911 Turbos.

"Millennials shun many of these vehicles (pre-1960s) that were popular with boomers. Some of these vehicles may have peaked for good as the younger generations want no parts of these cars," we noted last October after multiple well-known car auctions.

At the time, we first recognized the changing of the guard as GenXers and millennials were not showing up on the buy-side to purchase classics from the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. We must note many of these classics have fueled the historic car bubble for decades.

These classics are becoming increasingly difficult to sell at some of the country's most popular auctions. The latest comes after Monterey Car Week, where sales were down 3% from last year, and unsold classics from the pre-1960s piled up. 

Here's a terrific summary of the auction's highlights from auto news website Hagerty:

Car Week 2024 and the Monterey auctions are now in the books. While the Sunday concours in Pebble Beach is all about elegance, the auctions are best described with numbers. In four days, more than 1100 vehicles were offered, and 73 percent of them sold. Of those offered, 163 were potentially worth $1M or more. Total sales for the five auctions was just under $392M. Despite all those big numbers, fewer lots were offered this year, total sales were down by three percent, and the average price fell, too. Why?

Starting with those 163 examples of $1M-plus cars offered, the market appears to have a growing preference for more modern vehicles. When "modern" is defined as anything built since 1981, it leaves nearly 100 years of vintage vehicles and just over 40 years of modern. The amount of cars—140 vintage and 23 modern—could reflect the broader time period considered for vintage cars, or that imbalance could merely reflect an oversupply of vintage $1M-plus vehicles. Since 2021 in Monterey, modern vehicles in that seven-figure range have achieved a higher sell-through rate than vintage vehicles, partly due to being offered in smaller numbers.

It could also be that the appeal of vintage seven-figure cars like 1930s coachbuilt French cars is diminishing. Both the 1937 Bugatti Type 57 Atalante at Gooding (low est. $9M) and the 1938 Talbot-Lago T10C Teardrop Coupe at Broad Arrow (low est. $6.5M) were no sales. Conversely, both auction companies sold modern track-only sports racing cars, with Gooding selling a 1995 Ferrari 333 SP Evoluzione for $5,120,000 and Broad Arrow selling a 1997 Porsche 911 GT1 for $7,045,000.

Of course, seven-figure Ferraris and Monterey auctions go very well together, too. In the past 36 years, the top auction sale of the entire year occurred in Monterey 19 times, and 11 of those times, the car was a Ferrari. This year, six of the top 10 were Ferraris. However, like the broader $1M-plus market, there's a split between vintage Enzo-era Ferraris (pre-1974) and modern Ferraris. Vintage cars are more numerous at this price level, and the sell-through rate has been falling, while modern cars are relatively rarer and have been selling better. While changing tastes could account for that difference, supply differences could also affect the sell-through rate.

What stood out to us was the sell-through rate of 52% for pre-1981 cars priced at $1 million or more at Monterey. For newer vehicles, the sell-through rate came in at 73%—yet more evidence that Gen Xers and millennials prefer cars from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.

Data from Hagerty's Supercar Index, which tracks sports cars from the 1980s through the 2000s, shows a surge of over 60% since 2019. In contrast, the Blue Chip Index, which includes classic Corvettes, Ferraris, Jaguars, and other cars from the 1950s and 1960s, has fallen by 3%.

Millennials have dominated the labor market for the last five or so years. Their shift in taste has dictated economic trends this decade; many have been crushed by debt and inflation, and many cannot afford homes and/or start families.

And the baby boomers (or their estates) who are loaded up with classics from the pre-1960s better start to understand that these car prices will only slide more as millennials don't want Packards and T-Birds. They want the 1980s 911 Turbos. Also, high interest rates under failed Bidenomics have dampened activity in the classic car market.  

[Carmak]

In general, I agree with Alan’s post about the rise of “modern” (mid 70’s and newer) collector cars” and the decline of pre-60’s cars.

 

I would add some interesting observations:

*

From the 50’s to the mid 70’s there was a general belief that each year’s new car would be better than the year before (planned obsolescence) so it was uncommon to intentionally preserve a late model or new car.

In the mid 70’s this belief flipped with the thinking that each new year’s new car would be worse than the year before. This caused some people to intentionally preserve late model and new cars.

Although the beliefs about new cars being better or worse has become more nuanced the trend of intentionally preserving late model and new cars has grown and helped increase the pool of cars to collect.

 

*

My children are car aware and in their mid to upper 20’s. They do not have the problem with 4dr sedans and wagons that my generation (age in the 50’s-60’s) does. They often endearingly refer to 4dr sedans as “crew cabs”.

Round2 – Young people like 4drs and wagons!! ?

 

*

The term “muscle car” means nothing. It has gone from a term to define a very specific class of car (the performance model or package of a mid-size car built from 64-72) to a descriptive like “sleek”, “flashy”, “muscle car”.

I have seen everything from 50’s 4dr sedans to 80’s 307 powered Cutlass Supremes referred to as Muscle Cars.

Auction houses are often guilty of lumping all sorts of cars into the Muscle Car category.

[Dave Van]

CHANGE ....the only CONSTANT.

I have 5 'collector' cars and another under construction. I don't really care what there value is. NONE are leaving my garage while I am here. After that???

2 of mine.....

[iBorg]

A couple of observations. Collecting cars is a hobby just the same as building model cars except it just takes a larger budget. I inherited what was about $20K of model trains from my Father 15 years ago. I'd love to get half of what the collectors guides from 20 years ago valued his collection at. Now, I might get $3-5. As the demographics in a hobby ages either the hobby shifts as this article implies or it fades away. 

As for changes in the car market, I give you this example of a very nice Honda CRX at auction on Bring a Trailer: https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1991-honda-crx-si-6/

 

[stavanzer]

I'd like to have the '93-'97 Civic Del Sol, targa top car. I drove one once and it was a blast. Cute Car, Honda Reliability!

I'll bet they are a major collectible now, given the low sales numbers, and being 30 years old.

[bobthehobbyguy]

10 hours ago, stavanzer said:

For the effects of this on the Model Business, see recent comments on various threads by Justin Porter about what kind of Car kits sell well in his hobby shop, & comments by Commenter "Mozzi" about his experiences with his children and their friends about what Cars the younger generations deem, "Hot". Unless a '60s or '70s car has a Movie/TV Franchise supporting it, it is going to be harder and harder for the big model companies to justify the cost of cutting new tooling for vehicles of that vintage. I'm not predicting that it won't happen, I'm just saying the numbers have to pencil out, before it happens. And expect Nu-Nu, Beemax, Tamiya and others, to devote more tooling money to the 1980's and 1990's cars that constitute the "Nostalgia Cars" for today's Younger Buyers, along with the Modern Racing subjects that seems to be hot right now.

Yup this is spot on. And between the lower volumes in kit sales and the limited appeal of certain subjects it limits what can be produced. In most cases any new kit has to have several versions to make the numbers work. Al5hough that limits new styrene kits 3d printing does allow a larger number of options for subject matter.

[Richard Bartrop]

People keeps saying that nobody will love the "new" cars when they get old, and yet it keeps happening.

[Falcon Ranchero]

I, (a Gen Z) actually prefer anything from roughly 1953-1972, which is odd because I never grew up around any of those cars, but that may very well be the reason why I like them- they're all new to me. First time seeing a '50s, or '60s car, I thought they were the coolest machines on the road today. I'd love a first gen T-bird, or any space-age finned car. I like the 20 foot long C-body Chryslers. I can imagine some kids today think likewise about cars from those eras, but maybe not enough.

[Ace-Garageguy]

Far as I'm concerned, this 

or this

is every bit as desirable as this

or this

or this.

From my own perspective there's no problem, 'cause I don't give a rat's rump what anyone else is interested in, and if the prices plummet on the older stuff, there's just that much more chance I'll be able to own something that was previously out of reach.   

EDIT: For what it's worth, when I was 19, my girlfriend loved the '50s and '60s Porsches and Jags (etc.) I sometimes got to borrow, but she saw hot-rods based on '20s and '30s Fords as "old timey cars"...until she took a ride. Then she was almost as enthusiastic about them as I was.

Perspective and knowledge are everything. 

Edited August 28, 2024 by Ace-Garageguy

[stavanzer]

58 minutes ago, Falcon Ranchero said:

I, (a Gen Z) actually prefer anything from roughly 1953-1972, which is odd because I never grew up around any of those cars, but that may very well be the reason why I like them- they're all new to me. First time seeing a '50s, or '60s car, I thought they were the coolest machines on the road today. I'd love a first gen T-bird, or any space-age finned car. I like the 20 foot long C-body Chryslers. I can imagine some kids today think likewise about cars from those eras, but maybe not enough.

Nathan, I believe that you are on the Right Hand side of the Bell Curve. I'm pleased that your tastes match some of ours here, but you are pretty special in having them.

[Falcon Ranchero]

58 minutes ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

Far as I'm concerned, this 

or this

is every bit as desirable as this

or this

or this.

From my own perspective there's no problem, 'cause I don't give a rat's rump what anyone else is interested in, and if the prices plummet on the older stuff, there's just that much more chance I'll be able to own something that was previously out of reach.   

EDIT: For what it's worth, when I was 19, my girlfriend loved the '50s and '60s Porsches and Jags (etc.) I sometimes got to borrow, but she saw hot-rods based on '20s and '30s Fords as "old timey cars"...until she took a ride. Then she was almost as enthusiastic about them as I was.

Perspective and knowledge are everything. 

My favourite out of all those is the '57

[Ace-Garageguy]

2 hours ago, iBorg said:

...As for changes in the car market, I give you this example of a very nice Honda CRX at auction on Bring a Trailer: https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1991-honda-crx-si-6/

I loved those things...and several other small Hondas...when they were new, and would love to have one now as a gas-sipping but zippy daily driver.

But I have a Neon for that.

And I'm in my mid-70s.   

Cool cars are cool cars, no matter what era they were born in.  

Edited August 28, 2024 by Ace-Garageguy

[Falcon Ranchero]

15 minutes ago, stavanzer said:

Nathan, I believe that you are on the Right Hand side of the Bell Curve. I'm pleased that your tastes match some of ours here, but you are pretty special in having them.

Thanks, I appreciate it. Possibly one of my influences was the Disney Pixar movie "Cars", which also came out in 2006. I was heavily influenced by Flo the motorama show car, and Ramone, the '59 Impala. The scene where they drive through the town, with American Graffiti-esque style really touched me. As well as the heyday Radiator Springs scene. Oddly enough, I grew up with Happy Days as they showed it every weekday at 5:30pm for years on a Canadian channel, and since my parents grew up watching, they had it on while I was playing games on the ipad on the living room floor, and so I'd look up and see the Fonz and Ritchee, and those times really stuck with me. Last year, I was actually able to see American Graffiti for the first time, and I really liked it. All this heavily influenced my preference of classic cars.

[Ace-Garageguy]

It's interesting what appeals to people in different generations, and why.

One of the most talented and skilled "traditional" hot-rod builders I've ever known was in his early 40s back in the early/mid  2000-teens when I worked with him, and he knew way more about '20s-'50s Fords and the way things were done in the '40s and '50s than most old timers in their '60s and '70s who grew up with the stuff.

There definitely are "youngsters" interested in early cars, and one of the great things about the web is that they don't live in as much of an information vacuum as existed earlier, where you had to put out a whole lot more effort to get known, and you pretty much had to know someone personally who was already into rods and/or customs to get a foothold.

Edited August 28, 2024 by Ace-Garageguy

[Falcon Ranchero]

4 minutes ago, Ace-Garageguy said:

It's interesting what appeals to people in different generations, and why.

One of the most talented and skilled "traditional" hot-rod builders I've ever known was in his early 40s back in the early/mid  2000-teens when I worked with him, and he knew way more about '20s-'50s Fords and the way things were done in the '40s and '50s than most old timers in their '60s and '70s who grew up with the stuff.

There definitely are "youngsters" interested in early cars, and one of the great things about the web is that they don't live in as much of an information vacuum as existed earlier, where you had to put out a whole lot more effort to get known, and you pretty much had to know someone personally who was already into rods and/or customs to get a foothold.

I totally agree; I mean I've been able to fuel my passion via car magazines such as Collectible Automobile (my personal favourite), Hemmings Classic car and Muscle Machines as well as Canadian Hot Rods Magazine and Muscle Cars Magazine. I also managed to pick up a whole bunch of Classic Car books, like Tad Burness' My Dad Had That Car which doesn't really apply to my dad, but from him to his dad. Funny that even though I can get any car info I want via online services, I like to read books because I like the big clear pictures. Plus, book pages don't burn your eyes the way a computer screen does.

[Musclecarbuilder]

6 hours ago, Falcon Ranchero said:

I, (a Gen Z) actually prefer anything from roughly 1953-1972, which is odd because I never grew up around any of those cars, but that may very well be the reason why I like them- they're all new to me. First time seeing a '50s, or '60s car, I thought they were the coolest machines on the road today. I'd love a first gen T-bird, or any space-age finned car. I like the 20 foot long C-body Chryslers. I can imagine some kids today think likewise about cars from those eras, but maybe not enough.

Amen

[bobss396]

This is the time of year that I see the old coots at cruise nights trying to sell their cars.... and run to Florida. I passed on a nice '55 Chevy last year. A few years ago I saw a '34 Ford hot rod up for $45k that must have cost $90k or more to build. It had been a magazine car at some point, flawless. 

Maybe there will be deals to be had, buying the market dip. This may lure in some younger people into the hobby. I don't know too many "kids" dripping in dough. Not that I was at age 35. I was building my nest-egg starting at age 28 and did without lots of things I could have had. 

Us older folk were steeped in the car culture. Detroit cranked out very cool cars until the gas crunches and insurance put the brakes on cars like the factory LS6 Chevelles. Look at the '88 Corvettes, they were embarrasingly anemic. 

Nobody wants or knows how to restore a car so it becomes an asset. The ROI is low unless you do all your own work. Time will tell when and where the market will hit bottom.

[Brudda]

Ace at guy is right, buy what you like. Cool cars will always be cool. New or old. It’s what your budget will handle. If you buy what you like , enjoy driving the heck out of it and if you profit from it when you get tired of it consider yourself lucky. I always bought what I like, and I was very lucky when selling. I bought my first car during the gas crunch, a 1970 boss 302 which went for cheap because of the gas crisis. $2300. Sold it years later for $4800.  Got lucky. But I enjoyed the heck out of her. My next car was a 1966 GT 350 Shelby, bought it for $800 . It was crashed in the front but I fixed it, kept it for 36 years and sold her for over $100,000. This is when I learned about capital gains tax, so I have been very lucky, but it’s just luck, I bought what I liked and did not care if I made a profit or not. Same goes for my SUV’s bought them at a high price and they are worth nothing now. But they serve their purpose. Lesson is, buy what you like and don’t go for the investment garbage. If it turns out great , fantastic, if it doesn’t at least you enjoyed the drive. 

[gtx6970]

Maybe the muscle car era stuff. Takes a hit in value...maybe it doesnt. 

 

My girls will be there to scoop up one or two for themselves. ( they are 24 and 27 )

 

They  drive this old hotrod every chance they get. They don't even ask anymore. They just grab the keys and head for the drivers door. Telling me I'm a passenger .......all the time.

And I'm loving every minute of it

 

 

Also... and Hagerty is the one whom suggested I raise the insurance on mine from 75k to 105k two years ago.

Edited August 29, 2024 by gtx6970

[Brian Austin]

"What stood out to us was the sell-through rate of 52% for pre-1981 cars priced at $1 million or more at Monterey. For newer vehicles, the sell-through rate came in at 73%—yet more evidence that Gen Xers and millennials prefer cars from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. "

This generalization doesn't fit me.  As a Gen Xer I grew up with many wonderful old car books, and so was always interested in pre-1970s cars (give or take).  As I got more into local history I really appreciated the early era of innovation and manufacture.  The older cars that come to auction may appeal to me, but there's no way I'm going to afford any.  I've collected brochures from the '80s and '90s, but I'm not interested in buying any cars from this era. 

 

It wasn't that long ago that I was looking into this topic, as I wondered if muscle cars would become white elephants as their owners aged out, and younger buyers presumably wouldn't be interested.  I came across a discussion on Reddit where the consensus seemed to be that, no, there would always be some interest in muscle cars, and that we wouldn't see a flooded market from a mass sell-off.

[Brian Austin]

Millennials are collecting Model Ts. 

https://www.hagerty.com/media/market-trends/hagerty-insider/ever-popular-the-model-t-keeps-chugging-along/

 

Millennials collecting

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/lifestyle/auto-guide/2017/09/01/youth-movement-more-millennials-getting-collectible-cars/15771239007/

 

Gen Z Collecting older cars

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/06/automobiles/collectibles/young-collectors-older-classic-cars.html

 

[Richard Bartrop]

Hemmings' blog had an article not too long about about how MIllenials were getting into Brass era cars.

If certain cars aren't the hot collectibles they were, this might be bad news for the speculators, maybe this is good news for the people who just love them, but the market was too crazy?

[Brudda]

My insurance company charges the same on 1985 crx si as on my corvette. Go figure. I guess the si is what they do not like. I tried to insure it as a regular crx but cannot get away with it. The VIN says it all. 

[espo]

On 8/29/2024 at 10:54 AM, gtx6970 said:

Maybe the muscle car era stuff. Takes a hit in value...maybe it doesnt. 

 

My girls will be there to scoop up one or two for themselves. ( they are 24 and 27 )

 

They  drive this old hotrod every chance they get. They don't even ask anymore. They just grab the keys and head for the drivers door. Telling me I'm a passenger .......all the time.

And I'm loving every minute of it

 

 

Also... and Hagerty is the one whom suggested I raise the insurance on mine from 75k to 105k two years ago.

Buy your poor little daughter some new jeans Dad. Liking your Satellite.  

[lordairgtar]

In the Traditional Hot Rod scene, the cars are attracting 20 to 40 somethings. A Trad Rod is a hot rod build based on pre 1964 style and parts. No billet or modern fuel injection. Go to shows like Symco or others of that type. An offshoot of that are original gasser cars. These are being bought or built by really young guys.