Could you make a business case for upcoming new kit subjects?

[keyser]

Do you really think the video-game crowd is going to make the conversion to building models, which requires an entirely different manual-dexterity skill set, patience, and an attention span that can be captured by something that isn't going crash and boom constantly? Again, make a convincing argument.

I think it's an untapped market. Having your favorite NFS/Forza car on shelf to look at 3-D is tangible. Millions play game. 2% take rate on a kit is a huge number. The business case is the market. Find market, then what they're interested in, then market leads.

Understanding the manual dexterity set- these kids develop pretty great skills when they want to. Patience and attention span? Really? Ever played any of these games? Series racing requires patience for traffic, car setup, and strategy. Games are quite amazing. It isn't the crash and boom, it's quite realistic. I spent time fiddling aero, camber, and caster to try to get numbers lower on Indy lap. I bought game for kids, never had game console before. I've raced 1:1 a lot in past, and setup is same. Tweak, test, tweak, test. Same patience needed for building.

It wont wean kids off games, but it WILL sell kits, and get some kids interested. Looking at the leaderboards in these games and puling profiles, you can look at kids other games. Serial buyers of similar/earlier versions of games. Also usually have moto, soccer, some shoot'em up, but the kids good at car games do cars. You can see what cars are hot at various circuits. They have photo contests, history of cars on sites. We have Forza 5, and it's quite amazing.

The info flows fast. Why do you thing magazines are dying? I haven't renewed stuff, as it's ancient before it hits mailbox. Autoblog, HAMB, Youtube all have info and vid before magazines. Why would anyone wait >>1yr after announced to get a model of whatever? It's old by then. The all new '13 Camaro when the '15 is out? The Raptor coming in 6 months when I saw prototype pics of the alloy bodied truck online yesterday? Really? I like Raptor, my daughter wants it or a Stroppe Bronco as first car. But kids don't want a 5yo Raptor, they want NEW one.

I was stoked when the '15 Mustang appeared before car. HYPE. Sell on wave of new car stuff, have kit ready for the new car release PR. Use maker's ads/web press to sell. But no Vette, no C7R, nada.

Latest and greatest. Kids don't care 5 window. Forza put '40 Deluxe, '57 Chevy in game last week. Colossal MEH on boards. Nobody cares.

Wonder how many here know what an Ariel Atom, Radical, or Ultima is? To sell kits, manufacturers need to. And start work on deals/kit as soon as first bubbles appear on camo'ed prototypes, or on blogs. Media watch, and gaming watch. Lotus Cortina came out in same car pack last week, popular in a race series. Kit? no. Diecast? no. 10 cars came out in Forza, and the Hemi Dart, new BMW DTM car are the most popular. Kits of both out, actually. BMW kit great, but fiddly. Still, can sell one and it sits on shelf just like ours do.

We don't need business case for car. We need to tag along off juggernaut. Fortunes made off apps, cell phone cases, etc. But new comes out constantly. Kit companies give us "the all new iPhone 4S case" when iPhone 6 is 5-6 months out. Fix that, and your business case makes itself.

[Jeff Johnston]

Business case questions, as if this were an actual product development meeting. No criticism intended...only realistic answers and thought sought.

1) Why bother with a chopped and lowered '30s hot-rod kit when a competent modeler can already build an infinite number of variations on the hot-rod theme from the very good stuff that's already out there? Chopping and lowering upright cars is far far easier than say, a '49 Merc or a '48 Ford. Let's look at how those pre-chopped kits are selling. Convince us.

2) Do you really think the video-game crowd is going to make the conversion to building models, which requires an entirely different manual-dexterity skill set, patience, and an attention span that can be captured by something that isn't going crash and boom constantly? Again, make a convincing argument.

1). Take most of the builders on this board out of the equation. While we think the hobby is all about us (myself included ), its likely not. I would venture a guess that the majority of people who actually build models are casual builders. Guys that who don't have 1000 or more un-built kits, and 4 different cutting tools, and 37 different paints, and 2 different airbrushes...etc. Its the guy who's in the hobby shop or at Michael's who builds casually, and something catches their eye. I have to believe that's at least 3/4 of the hobby. I do not claim to know that for a fact, so if someone does please verify or correct my assumption. These folks don't know who Norm Veber or Jimmy Flintstone is. They aren't going to research how to lower a frame. They are going to buy some spray paint, a tube of glue and some Testors bottle paints and glue the model together.

These are the guys I am targeting with the chopped and channeled kit, and lets face it, we'd all but a couple too. Having said that, I still very much believe this is a viable and potentially long standing kit with many potential options.

2). I have to agree that I don't think the video game crowd isn't gong to convert. My son is 18, and loves cars. Loves Ferrari and Lamborghini and Bugatti. I've offered to buy him nice Tamiya kits and he's just not interested. His best friend is on his 5th WRX... He buys and sells and buys and sells. Big car nut. ZERO interest in building a model. Loves the one I built for him, had no interest in doing it himself. I think the time where we get these kids is when they turn 30, just had their first baby and they remember their dad or Uncle who used to build models. They don't have the freedom they once had and are looking for a hobby.

I'm 49 and I'm usually one of the younger guys. Most of the guys I know who built did as a kid, then got out of it when they were a bit older, and got back into it when they had kids. That's me too.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Jeff Johnston

[Ace-Garageguy]

OK. Now we're getting into what "make a business case" actually means. Good stuff so far, thinking about how to play the potential market and why. Keep it going.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Ace-Garageguy

[hack-n-whack]

If I were the CEO , I would produce a series of early thirties and mid thirties MOPARS. The same body can be used for Plymouth and Dodges,(probably De Soto's too).The first issue would be stock. The next would be a street rod version with a modern driveline and suspension. The third version would be early (jalopy style) dirt track and drag race cars. The accomplished modelers could turn the stock version into any variation they want just by raiding their parts bins. Each issue could be a different body style also

( coupe, sedan, convertible, and even a woody).

[keyser]

Jeff, kids that can drive and chase girls don't buy kits. Just like tons of guys here, we had kits 8-14yo or so, then money went elsewhere. My kit buying stopped from 15 until 25-26 maybe? But I think kids in these games are loyal, and there's a hell of a lot more of them than there are airbrush-owning MCM-reading swap-meet-going guys here.

Guys here buy kits on clearance at HL, with coupons, on-line, or in dying LHS. Radio Shack is dead. BBY is dying. Remember record stores? Magazine stands other than airports?

Go where market is, rapid prototyping, and even use more disposable tooling if something doesn't sell? No idea how it works, but DC manufacturers get stuff out fast. Licensed, made, shipped. Welly has had 918 DC out for ages, hard to find. I found plastic RC 1/24 918 at Tuesday Morning that is presentable. 6 months ago. No kit even hinted at. P1? Nada. 458 Speciale? Zip.

http://www.autoblog.com/2014/05/07/next-ford-raptor-spotted-wearing-aluminum-skin/ <-2015 Raptor prototype in camo

This. Start NOW. Snap fine, if sells, do colored detail kit, maybe pre-built promos at same time as snap. It'll pay for irrelevant stuff people here think may sell upwards of 3 kits (bought on sale with coupon).

Nice thing is that gamers are fiercely loyal to brand. They complain, but that is the "board skewed reality" we see here. But the cars are there, and it's pre-done, readily available massive market research on huge market. One leaderboard on 1 version of 1 track in Forza has 300k people on it. And the car that's fastest for that track is used by 75% of those people. No kit or DC. 10% take rate on that would be 30000 kits. WAG of $10/kit net is $300000. So tooling paid for mostly. If there is cheaper tooling/3D printing, even better. If tool sells, cut better tool, or revise based on issues/production problems, etc. All from a tiny percentage of a game. But it HAS to be current. 8-14, and mid-20's-30's are age targets. Not the tiny nutball segment here. Self included.

Edited May 11, 2014 by keyser

[Ace-Garageguy]

If I were the CEO , I would produce a series of early thirties and mid thirties MOPARS. The same body can be used for Plymouth and Dodges,(probably De Soto's too).The first issue would be stock. The next would be a street rod version with a modern driveline and suspension. The third version would be early (jalopy style) dirt track and drag race cars. The accomplished modelers could turn the stock version into any variation they want just by raiding their parts bins. Each issue could be a different body style also

( coupe, sedan, convertible, and even a woody).

Being an old-fossil hot-rodder myself, I'd really like to see a lineup of '30s Mopars. Don't forget the pickups, which shared body parts as well. Non-Ford cars are becoming increasingly popular in the real-car old-hot-rod movement. I'm in the beginning stages of final assembly of an all steel, 354 Hemi-powered '33 Plymouth right now.

[Ace-Garageguy]

Jeff, kids that can drive and chase girls don't buy kits.

But it HAS to be current. 8-14, and mid-20's-30's are age targets. Not the tiny nutball segment here. Self included.

I'm listening, but I'm wondering if these aren't slightly contradictory.

Do kids 8-14 have the $$ to buy kits? Buying one video game and playing it a lot seems to take less cash than buying models, but my thinking may be flawed. Then there's the excellent point made by Jeff.

"2). I have to agree that I don't think the video game crowd isn't gong to convert. My son is 18, and loves cars. Loves Ferrari and Lamborghini and Bugatti. I've offered to buy him nice Tamiya kits and he's just not interested. His best friend is on his 5th WRX... He buys and sells and buys and sells. Big car nut. ZERO interest in building a model. Loves the one I built for him, had no interest in doing it himself. I think the time where we get these kids is when they turn 30, just had their first baby and they remember their dad or Uncle who used to build models. They don't have the freedom they once had and are looking for a hobby. "

20s and 30s men are STILL chasing women, if my own memory is anything to go by. I was entirely out of model-building (other than presentation prototypes for business) from my mid-teens until my late 50s.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Ace-Garageguy

[keyser]

Being an old-fossil hot-rodder myself, I'd really like to see a lineup of '30s Mopars. Don't forget the pickups, which shared body parts as well. Non-Ford cars are becoming increasingly popular in the real-car old-hot-rod movement. I'm in the beginning stages of final assembly of an all steel, 354 Hemi-powered '33 Plymouth right now.

I like them. But completely irrelevant to profit. OOOOOOH a new Terraplane kit!! An Essex sedan!!! WOW. Unless you're 45+, live on HAMB/Goodguys shows, these cars, Mopars of that age are dead. Plymouth? Ever watch Jay-walking? People can't name President, yet recognize dead brand.

Rod sounds kewl, but not going to sell kits. 3D printing for this niche.

Games are $20-50. In game stuff is $10-20. Console is $500. Wheels/controllers $2-500. Shoes? $120-200. Money is there for many. Phone cases? $15-20 each. Daughter has 5-10 of them, you do math. And they don't fit new phones. New phone screen? $200. Repeat repair? $99. Look at what sells in HUGE volumes. Then tap tiny percent of it which is huge.

Job market tough now, lots of kids mid 20's have some money, more time, and live on vid games. Look at numbers of kids moving in with parents after college. Life very different than ours. And young fathers in late 20's can do snaps with kids as diversion. Dating isn't going to change, but the 50yo is not a volume market. Guys in 20's usually arent in posiition to buy 1:1's. That's an aspirational market.

Edited May 10, 2014 by keyser

[Jeff Johnston]

Jeff, kids that can drive and chase girls don't buy kits. Just like tons of guys here, we had kits 8-14yo or so, then money went elsewhere. My kit buying stopped from 15 until 25-26 maybe? But I think kids in these games are loyal, and there's a hell of a lot more of them than there are airbrush-owning MCM-reading swap-meet-going guys here.

I have to say I definitely agree with you there... The thought of kitting up (for example) the most popular car featured in a game like Grand Theft Auto is actually a pretty interesting idea. I just wonder if kids would really do it.

[sjordan2]

Though not of interest to me, I think those who have mentioned pick-ups are onto something. If you watch the auction shows like Mecum and Barrett-Jackson, there seems to be a rapidly growing interest among collectors and Boomers in 30s-50s trucks.

[Ace-Garageguy]

Some exceedingly relevant input at this point would be the actual sales numbers on existing kits of various genres, like old-fossil subjects and current Euro and Asian fast cars, compared.

Just a reminder to the older-car naysayers. Moebius must be doing well enough with their Hudsons and big '50s Chryslers to be able to justify more continuing '50s and '60s model development and tooling. Somebody is buying enough to keep it all going.

Another reminder...30 years ago you couldn't give a real flathead engine away to use as a boat anchor. There is now a flourishing 1:1 aftermarket making reproduction hot-rod parts that haven't been seen in 50 years for these engines...and the stuff sells for big money.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Ace-Garageguy

[keyser]

Agreed flatties, early Hemis are hot...to market segment that a) has money; b)knows what they are; c)can indulge a 1:1 build.

Kids would rather see Skyline motor than flattie, or JDM twincam whatever. Really irrelevant as long as it goes. The big market isn't looking for a flattie with trick heads. They want a cool looking car with nice engine shroud, and a 3D chunk to put by the Vid console or desk to think about. Living on a tablet, phone, or video is 2D world. Nice to have a 3D rep of video fantasy. Think of it like our posters. We got kits to add dimension to dreams.

Moebius has great niche, seems bigger than expected. Well done. 300's I had in resin, Hudson's, cars announced more meh. 60's Ford trucks hot, should f/u with 66-77 Bronco. So I'm target market, but filled that hole long ago mostly. Hope they do well, and they seem to pick their subjects well.

Still, not a 75-100k unit run methinks.

Forgot about pickups- Ask vendors, the 50 Chev, 55-57 Chevs are either thick on the ground, or saleproof. The 60-65 Chev's from AMT/RM are OK sellers, but I don't see any shortage of cheap ones at shows. 61-63 F100's pull $ usually, I love the things. But not getting looked at daily in a vid game. Exposure creates demand. Seeing trucks on auction broadcasts helps that. Just don't think that is a deep well to drill. Far better than any 30's-40's car though. Album art has lots of 50's and 60's pickups too. Wait, that exposure thing again. Let culture advertise it for you, then stick it in front of the audience.

Edited May 10, 2014 by keyser

[Ace-Garageguy]

...Living on a tablet, phone, or video is 2D world...

And you've made perfectly a large part of my position that what's hot in a 2D, pretend environment will not necessarily translate into what's hot in a 3D, real-object environment.

Gaming provides a high level of constant external stimulation, and I believe that the "patience" required to play a video game for hours is not at all the same kind of "patience" required to sit at a workbench for hours, with only internal stimulation, not to mention no social interaction from off-site competitors. Constant external stimulation and constant social interaction seem to be what the youth culture is mostly about. It was when I was young too though. So here's the tricky bit. When I was young, the only way I could get the rush of driving fast was by DOING it. The only way I could get the feel of a hot-rod was by BUILDING one...or at least by building a model. Now that so much stimulation is available in a rapidly-evolving virtual environment, where's the motivation to build a "real" anything, especially a little model that doesn't even go vroom?

The rapid-response eye-hand co-ordination acquired during gaming is not at all the same as the fine-motor, delicate control necessary to build models. Combine that with a society-bred short attention span of only long enough to get from commercial to commercial on the tube, and you don't have a very favorable market for selling models to. Remember too that I work in the performance / hot-rod industry, and occasionally in aviation, and we've all had an EXTREMELY difficult time getting young people interested in developing manual and thinking skills, even when the potential pay is much better than working at a Starbucks or a Mcd's.

Please understand, I'm not being argumentative here, and I'm NOT trying to hammer my viewpoint down anyone's throat.

I'm simply doing what any good member of a product development team should do, by bringing opposing views into the light and by examining them, trying to determine what the TRUTH of the target demographic REALLY is, rather than what we might WANT it to be.

I retain the overall opinion that the fading baby-boomer market still has pretty strong legs, and the smart money in the short term will be to milk what's left of us for every nickel that we're willing to spend by getting products that appeal to US to market ASAP. Moebius has been doing it, and it's tough to argue convincingly with success.

On the other hand, getting even a relatively small percentage of the video game numbers you mention as kit buyers looks like an interesting proposition. Again, I'd like the know some REAL numbers of old-fossil-appeal kits selling TODAY compared to kits that should, in theory, appeal to a much younger crowd.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Ace-Garageguy

[Greg Myers]

OK, thought it over, maybe there is a market for these here, just for the reason Jeff stated, I can't do it. Do it for me. Did it work for these kits ? all chopped up and ready to go.

Look at possibly the most popular year car at most hot rod / rat rod shows now. Where they diggin em all up from ? https://www.google.com/search?q=1947+ford+coupe+model+kit&es_sm=93&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=q6NuU7G2DJKDogSN_oJI&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAg&biw=1600&bih=799#q=1930+model+a+ford+hot+rod&tbm=isch&imgdii=_

Now work in all the possibilities, Stock, '28-'29 ; '30- '31; hot rod, rat rod, coupe, two door, roadster, drag race , Bonneville,street rod,( this could go on forever) and it takes off just like the Revell 1/25th scale Deuce kits did.Just get it in the right scale. The old Monogram 1930 series is great but there's the howling of the 1/25th scale guys. and they're still churnin em out.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Greg Myers

[1930fordpickup]

I think that the video game kids would put together a snapper Mustang or Raptor to have the 3D car on the shelf. Is that what would bring them in to the fold of builder is a long stretch . That being said it would be money in the bank for AMT, Revell and Moebius . These kits are fast and easy . Just come up with a way to have the stickers that are in the game, and you could have a seller on your hands. You might need to hide a flash drive for memory in the car( in the location for the rear plate) or to get the game it comes with a snap kit (yes this is a stretch with everything being down loaded from maker of the game ). All your friends need to do is come over and see your hot looking car from the last stage of the game, no bragging needed.

[Ace-Garageguy]

OK, thought it over, maybe there is a market for these here, just for the reason Jeff stated, I can't do it. Do it for me. Did it work for these kits ? all chopped up and ready to go.

Yes but...

I agree with the reasoning following from "I can't do it. Do it for me." And there are a lot of YOUNG guys building chopped and / or channeled As in the real world. We're also beginning to see a resurgence of model-related articles in the 1:1 hot-rod mags.

Revell already has excellent tooling for the model A chassis, left over from the woody, pickup, sedan and other kits. Revell already also has excellent tooling for a street-rod style '32 chassis, obviously. Why not tool a good 1/25 chopped A coupe body, and retool the '32 chassis enough to build a traditional car on it (a model-A built on '32 rails is the ultimate "traditional" combination) with an I-beam front axle and a rear Zee in the frame to accommodate a buggy-spring quick-change, and throw in chassis bits from the old A as well?

Hire a REAL hot-rod builder and modeler who UNDERSTANDS the stuff (I'll volunteer) to work with the kit designers so that the thing can be built MULTIPLE ways on the A chassis, on the '32 chassis, channeled or not, etc. etc.) using an absolute minimum of new tooling.

If it sells, give the whole concept even longer legs by offering different bodied kits...as Greg suggests, just like they did with the run of '32 kits.

An easy-to-tool rectangular-tube chassis could be added down the line (a lot of cars are being built with these too in real-world-land), and some different wheel and engine choices to keep it flying as a parts donor, if nothing else.

As I've already asked, and Greg reminds us, how have the chopped Merc and Ford performed as far as ROI goes? And the Rat Roaster? Using the Merc tooling to build the wagon seems to be working, but what are the real numbers?

Edited May 10, 2014 by Ace-Garageguy

[keyser]

I think crossover is possible, more as something to try, than dumping gaming for kits. A desk trinket in 3D. Something to go with coffee mug, merchandising. Ferrari makes more $ off merchandising than off the cars.

Graphics (stickers implies little kids) can be made for 2D game cars, and other than a few famous ones in the games, are all over map. It's the cars. They're driving cars, not playing a game. Augmented reality.

I crossed back to gaming, and it's surprising what I used from racing 1:1, and modeling. It was and is a novelty. Will be so conversely. Good thing is, the driven in the game seem to be driven across platforms, and it takes some creativity to win/do well. Easier to sell/teach to intellectually curious. Not all gamers are slugs. Great way to learn new tracks for driving schools and track days too. The real reason I started.

I also got my 10yo to go from gaming to karting. He does Lego too, which is huge. Skills crossed, he had hard time transitioning to wheel and G-loads, but had fastest lap and won by end of 1st heat. Get kids interested, and you'll get a shot.

Agreed that this is spitballing, but considering that every model company has been flipped a couple times, industry needs to find new market. Need product ASAP, piggyback off other's huge ad budgets, and keep churning. A 2010 Raptor in 2014 is 4 years late. Ford only sold 8k in 2010, but it was the buzz. Of 950000 F150's. Not even 1%. Profits probably double per unit. Nobody wants iPhone 4S case when iPhone 6 is imminent. Dealing with unnecessary purchase, all about wants, aspirations. Not needs. #new today #newthisweek #2014

CEO job is to:

a) Provide value to shareholders. Period. That means making return on investment.

$20/kit profit on 15000 kits, or $10/kit profit on 150000 kits.

b ) Need to open new markets. Sell to people that haven't bought from you.

Cayenne and Panamera for example. Saved the company, make more money for Porsche than the sportscars do. Few buyers pop a 911, but love their ugly lumps. 911 buyers, however, buy the new stuff too. They didn't cannibalize sales.

Selling kits to 0.1% of Need for Speed, or Forza, or whatever players? That's about 150-200 Million games sold from inception. Gross numbers, but close enough. If you look at the 300k people on the one leaderboard as a nutball fringe, that is 0.2% of total number of games. Pretty small slice. Now sell 1/2 that many people 1 kit. That is 150000 kits. $10/kit net is $1.5M. In a sliver of a completely untouched market, probably with ZERO sales.

c)Build reputation of company with quality, ease of use, and service.

Accuracy, ease to build and or detail further, and problem resolution. I've got a Hasegawa SR71 with short shot glass I was given to build while getting chemo. I sent pic of short shot to Hasagawa (?Hobbico?), told them it was gift. Acted like I was trying to rip them off. Still no glass from February. I'll throw it in trash and never buy Hasegawa again for the BS. Parents don't want to screw with this, nor do kids. Company has seconds to "surprise and delight", and instill desire for more, or at least enthusiasm for product.

This also includes not alienating current customers. Like denying issues with kit proportions, or vinyl roof, or cowl, or....

d)Expand production efficiencies. Will short-run tooling work? Can 3D printing be used for some parts, prototyping? If kit sells in greater numbers, can more permanent tools be pulled off short-run tooling (no idea what's possible, not toolmaker, but I've heard alloy molds cheaper than other metals?)

So CEO is really needed to steer company to a market, to compete hopefully unopposed, to grow business, and to make profits to get further investment. See: AAPL, GOOGL, F. (For bad examples, see BBY, Penney's, KM, Woolworth, Radio Shack, LHS, and the multiply sold model manufacturers. Ooops.)

Better to sell 50k kits of Ultima GTR, KTM Cross-bow, or Ariel Atom, than 500 kits of Duel Dart.

Real numbers nice. Short run stuff seems to be 5000 kits? 10k kits? Don't know what volumes Dave B did on his runs. Dukes Charger supposedly biggest seller ever?

Edited May 11, 2014 by keyser

[Greg Myers]

Sadly we don't get too many real numbers here. Some kinda top secret if I tell ya I'd have to kill ya kinda mentality. Yeah, I know , it's there business and "they" don't want anyone else to know. However just a simple did it work or not would be nice.

Seeing the Revell Deuce kits keep rolling along must be a good sign,( wonder what's next ?} and the other two ,'47 Ford and Merc' are still on the shelves.

A four door ?

Edited May 11, 2014 by Greg Myers

[Greg Myers]

A 2010 Raptor in 2014 is 4 years late.

A good reason to stick with

something the gray beards like. http://www.rodandcustommagazine.com/featuredvehicles/1003rc_1930_ford_model_a_pickup/ all kinds of iconic stuff.

Edited May 11, 2014 by Greg Myers

[Ace-Garageguy]

Sadly we don't get too many real numbers here. Some kinda top secret if I tell ya I'd have to kill ya kinda mentality. Yeah, I know , it's there business and "they" don't want anyone else to know. However just a simple did it work or not would be nice.

A little more transparency would be nice indeed, but if you think about it, it's also a pretty safe bet that the nostalgic stuff like Revell's '32 series and the '50 Olds and '57 Ford, as well as the chopped Merc and '48 Ford, have done well enough to justify the extensive (though somewhat oddly done...in my opinion) retool of the Sizzler as Slingster. I've already bought several copies of each, and I know I'm not in a modeling minority on that issue. If these are selling, give us more subjects in a similar vein, and we'll buy them all.

And as I've alluded to earlier, another safe bet is that Moebius must certainly have done well enough with the '53 Hudsons and big Chryslers (and they probably have a pretty good idea of Revell's numbers on the '50 Olds and '57 Ford too) to justify the upcoming '54 Hudson, '61 Pontiacs, '65 Plymouth and '65 Comet. I mean really...who in their right mind, if thinking of ONLY mass appeal, would have thought a '53 Hudson was a good bet? But it's a well received and apparently popular kit, and beautifully executed. And I get the feeling Moebius is leading the CAD / rapid prototyping / rapid tool development race at the moment.

There must be a pretty good return being made manufacturing kits of cars that younger people "have never heard of, and don't care about".

[keyser]

And I get the feeling Moebius is leading the CAD / rapid prototyping / rapid tool development race at the moment.

There must be a pretty good return being made manufacturing kits of cars that younger people "have never heard of, and don't care about".

Actually, when many of the big sellers were tooled, they were current, or close.

I like them, my kids like some, but not a universal appeal.

As an old market pleaser, awesome. For injecting lots of new capital, I'd not pick rods. No idea how Stacey 32 did, but show cancelled. People wanted stock version of 49 Woody, pitched a fit about shared Cad mill.

Haven't bought 50 Olds, 57 Ford, or anything Moebius. Bodystyles boring/ugly to me. Ranchero, I'm in. 88 convert, I'm in. 300's, sure, but had both 55 and 56 in resin.

The return manufacturing cars nobody cares about is relative. RM got sold in last couple years, Round 2 is a newest iteration, Lindberg is a tool catalog.

Glencoe Revell, Monogram, MPC, AMT all were competitors in mid 60's. Just briefly mulling, since then there has been about 5 ownership changes of Revell, 4 Monogram, ~5 MPC, ~6 AMT. Lindberg rose, fell, rose again, fell. Galaxie, Acc Min, American Satco, I'm hopeful for current stewardship, but is this really a legacy of win?

Need to find new markets and make product relevant to people that currently don't give a BLAH_BLAH_BLAH_BLAH about it. Sell to new segments, expand customer base without losing product ID.

Porsche sells 2.5 ton trucks and 4 doors now, more than their sportscars combined. We lust after the sports-cars.

Ford sells 2.5 F150's a minute, 24/7/365. They sell about 1 Raptor per hour. We lust after the Raptor.

Until someone hangs it out and says try it, it'll never change. Multinational business is not for dilettantes or hobbyists. Or fearful flat-earthers and xenophobes. Evolve or die (with all respect to the creationists here, who limit their longevity clinging to their belief, ironically ) <-joke.

Plz note: I do like the straight-8 rear radiator stuff I've seen at Goodguys and Lone Star Roundup. But it ain't enough to revitalize an industry. And 50 yo have less and less time, and later and later retirements. Lots of 50-60yo were dumped into unemployment or "under-retirement" in last 7-8 years, so disposable income isn't what it was, or what was expected.

[Ace-Garageguy]

Granted, model companies that want to be around in 20 years need to be taking the long view and developing entirely NEW markets NOW...but that's just not the typical business model, unfortunately. Cost cutting today and stock price next quarter seem to be about as far into the future as most boardrooms can imagine.

Petroleum companies, had they had any REAL vision, should have been positioning themselves as broad-spectrum ENERGY companies, many many years ago. Instead, most of them try to squeeze the last few drops of crude from shale and tar sands. Let's not forget that the FIRST solar engines were in operation in the mid-1860s. That's around 150 years ago. My, how slowly humanity moves forward, even when shown the way. And forward-thinking scientists of the day were already warning that human expansion could not be sustained indefinitely by burning fossil fuels.

The 3-dimensional scale model may well be a dinosaur that just refuses to believe that that shadow in the sky is a looming comet, soon to extinguish all of dinosaurdom.

An approach consistent with normal human behavior is to continue with business-as-usual, minimizing immediate risk, but raising the likelihood of ultimate doom.

And that is consistent with milking the last of the baby-boomers for their dwindling supply of pennies, until the vary last one gasps his last gasp..

Edited May 11, 2014 by Ace-Garageguy

[Tom Geiger]

Lots of good thoughts in the last few pages. In fact way too many that I'd like to comment on! There are two ends of the market for the manufacturers to work.

1. The baby boomers who are retiring every day. That's us guys and the subjects we are interested in. Revell has been listening and has produced timeless cars that will always sell. And the model of getting several to many different kit versions out of a tool is a necessity today. Moebius is also riding the retiree wave and very successfully. They are producing models of cars we never thought we'd see. And they are successful. This market will work for the next 10-20 years. In fact, as more and more of us retire and have free time, it will get better. Note that some of the movers in the hobby like Tim Boyd and Ken Hamilton have recently retired. I would bet real money that guys like these will devote more time in being visible in the hobby. I think we are headed into a new renaissance that will make the ones we've seen before look like bumps in the road.

2. The tuner crowd. There is a strong movement in my local area with young guys in their 20s who are building modern sports material. In response NNL East created their category this year. I was at the Mid-Atlantic NNL and they also agreed to support it at their show next year. So it's happening. If the manufacturers want the hobby to live a long life, they'll need to cater to this crowd as they mature. Comments by Jeff that guys will find hobbies after they get past the 1:1 cars and girls phase, and settle down. We all did it so no reason why history cannot repeat itself.

There was a comment a few pages back about nobody wanting the AMT 55-57 pickups and their cheap availability at shows. Note that this kit is over 20 years old and has been a constant in the catalog for all that time. So the market is saturated with those pickups, I know I have a dozen in my stash. But take that tired kit and tool up 1958 and 1959 pickup bodies to drop onto it... game on! That would be a winner.

[Ace-Garageguy]

There was a comment a few pages back about nobody wanting the AMT 55-57 pickups and their cheap availability at shows. Note that this kit is over 20 years old and has been a constant in the catalog for all that time. So the market is saturated with those pickups, I know I have a dozen in my stash. But take that tired kit and tool up 1958 and 1959 pickup bodies to drop onto it... game on! That would be a winner.

Part of the problem with that particular kit MAY stem from the poor rep the thing has due to window fit, and inaccuracy in the side-window shape on early versions. A rebody with later sheetmetal would solve the problem entirely, and well utilize the rest of the existing tooling

[keyser]

Granted, model companies that want to be around in 20 years need to be taking the long view and developing entirely NEW markets NOW...but that's just not the typical business model, unfortunately. Cost cutting today and stock price next quarter seem to be about as far into the future as most boardrooms can imagine.

An approach consistent with normal human behavior is to continue with business-as-usual, minimizing immediate risk, but raising the likelihood of ultimate doom.

And that is consistent with milking the last of the baby-boomers for their dwindling supply of pennies, until the vary last one gasps his last gasp..

Quoted for sad truth. We'd all have bloody flip-phones still, and paper maps. #getoffmylawn

Lots of good thoughts in the last few pages. In fact way too many that I'd like to comment on! There are two ends of the market for the manufacturers to work.

1. The baby boomers who are retiring every day. ...I think we are headed into a new renaissance that will make the ones we've seen before look like bumps in the road.

2... If the manufacturers want the hobby to live a long life, they'll need to cater to [tuner] crowd as they mature.

...nobody wanting the AMT 55-57 pickups and their cheap availability at shows. Note that this kit is over 20 years old and has been a constant in the catalog for all that time.

Boomers that did well are retiring, those that didn't aren't doing swimmingly, or are pushing out farther. Perhaps renaissance of content, but sales drives profits, and allows expansion. Pushes don't play.

Access to kits as impulse, new conquest retail sales limited by 650 HL stores, and 1300 Michaels/Aarons stores. 2k sales points brick and mortar, smattering of LHS, sporadic WM presence, 175 HTUSA and intarweb sales. Michaels usually doesn't have squat, to be blunt. HL better, but not much. And the 'bay, but will hear usual gripes of it isn't safe to buy, yadayada.

Tim, Ken, some others understand the retail shift needed here too. Round 2 has definitely broadened the movie/collector tie ins, and Moebius has done well on boomer content. Ford understands retail shift, marketing to kids/families. But need lots more to sustain, grow, and not just (shudder) "kick the can down the road". I've read in many threads, and in real time, that many of us are buying less, selling more, even you, Tom. It's true. So better kits, fewer sales, increasing overhead, narrowed margins, and aging customer base. Needs a renaissance like bowling has had. Hipster bowling allies with hobby shops and a bottle shop/deli? (Funny thread that was).

When is last time you saw kids in HL for purchases, not just tortured trips with parent for school project supplies? Um, never? Need to make a kit or 2 part of kids lives, not their primary hobby (wishful), just a taste, to a large audience. Record industry has changed marketing too. Youtube clips expose audience, create demand. Gaming creates interest, and demand for cars. In game purchases are actually more expensive than a kit is, so virtual model car costs more than a real model car. Perceived bargain to start.

Now in the 20 years the 55-57 pickups available, how many have correct cabs vs sloping window line? 57's have correct flat sill. 55's don't, best I can tell. Haven't bought one in a few, but I've used 57 cabs for correcting my 55/56's. Or Modelhaus' small window cab now OOP but awesome. Round 2 should fix that globally, permanently. And merge the 2 kits for stepside or Cameo built either with stock or custom parts. 55 would be a build 1 of 8 that way. 55/56 Cameo; 55/56 stepside, 55/56 rodded Cameo; 55/56 rodded stepside. Probably could sell a few more that way, never have seen 56 mentioned IIRC. 58-59 conversion would be nice easy bump for kit. But they're saturated.

Geez, Spurs/Portland series is sad.