Could you make a business case for upcoming new kit subjects?

[Harry P.]

Anything less than that is but a pusilanimous wishing for one's personal favorite model kit subject of the day...

"Pusillanimous" wishing?

I think Art wins the "Ten Dollar Word of the Week" award!

[cartpix]

I was thinking $50 (adjusted for inflation).

[keyser]

There is a sweet diecast of a Stude pickup, and a phantom 2 door woody based on it as well. Common, and sells, but not well. I've got a couple, and they're easy to mod/rod.

Lonestar Roundup was awesome show, 1800 cars registered. Lots of rockabillies, middle agers, but I didn't see a lot of hipsters or mainstreamers despite huge crowd. I had chemo mask on, and felt really out of place, but amazing builds, and some great people. Wish my kids could have met you Tim, they love your builds and SVT products. Here in TX I see 8-10 Raptors daily.

Niteowl, I obviously agree, and Moebius has an awesome niche. I've already checked boxes on their choices though with high end diecast, or resin from my old friend Art, that I also agree with. The Ford F's are going to be huge. But the snaps and pre-paints will give "completion gratification" that keeps us all going, even those of us that are a few thousand behind.

SJS IIRC did late 40's-early 50's Stude PU too.

The tuners RM did way back were DOA, old body style. They're back again, but they're spooked. Drift cars (NOT GTO) like Focus ST, Mustang, etc. have huge following, and are close enough to stock appearing to make Japanese decal variants possible. Do reasonable run of something, and just box art and decal changes/separate decal instructions would give you 3-4 variants off 1 run.

25-35 yo's build old Fords and Studes as that's what's available. How many posts hammer these kits as new tools? People have no idea some of those kits are older than their dads. The Deuces from RM, the Camaros, Chargers are Iconic. The Airfix Lego-style Bugatti is only kit of that car, ever. No idea if they'll make it here, but Airfix so hard to find, doubt it'll sell to anyone but hunters.

Games have old cars too. 40 Deluxe, 57 Belair, old Mustangs, 71 Javelin, etc. Not a one is used greatly, nor sets lap records for class out of hundreds of thousands of players, many older too. Latest car pack in Forza 5 had Lotus 11, current Ecoboost Formula Ford, Brabham BT-24, Audi 90 silhouette racer, and awesome 39 Maserati 8CLT GP car. Current look-alike Indy series cars popular. Simple snap+ kits in various decals would cover ton of teams, as would re-issue of Miata in club racer form with rollbar, decals, and perhaps wheels. For nearly 25 yo tool Amazed Tamiya hasn't done it.

Sorry for novella. A plethora of replies.

Edited June 11, 2014 by keyser

[jbwelda]

>Games have old cars too. 40 Deluxe, 57 Belair, old Mustangs, 71 Javelin, etc. Not a one is used greatly,

>nor sets lap records for class out of hundreds of thousands of players, many older too. Latest car pack in

>Forza 5 had Lotus 11

I have no idea what you are going on about here but I am interested in the Lotus XI you mention...got a link or a photo or something for it?

thanks!

jb

[Aaronw]

A bit surprised at the holes in the VW line up. Multiple kits of the 1960s Beetle, and T1 transporter but little outside of that. One or two old kits of the Karmann-Ghia, and a kit of the 1979-90 Vanagon Camper. No later model Beetle / Super Beetle (ok, one but understand it is horrible), no 1969-79 T2 Transporter (Micro bus), no Type 3 (notchback, squareback and fastback), and of course already mentioned, no VW Thing. A good Baja bug seems like another no brainer.

I can understand the lack of the later water cooled econobox VW's (which in fact we have several of) but it would seem like any of the air cooled VW's would have a similar appeal to those buying the early Beetles and Transporters.

Ok, sorry not really a business case, but these seem like obvious choices if the first two are good sellers.

[Harry P.]

A good Baja bug seems like another no brainer.

Maybe it's the years of glue fumes, but I could swear I built a "Baja Bug" kit (Revell?) as a kid. Am I right?

[Aaronw]

There is a Baja bug kit out there, pretty sure it is from Revell and was reboxed into the Blacktop warriors series. Understand it is not a particularly good kit being based on a not terribly good (and fairly old) Beetle kit. With several good beetles to start with now, it seems like an obvious modified tool option for Tamiya, Hasegawa (probably unlikely) or Revell's new "old" Beetle.

I think the Baja bug is probably mostly an American interest so would appeal primarily to one of the US based kit makers. The lack of a decent Beetle kit from an American kit maker until now does kind of explain the fact we don't have a good one I guess.

Edited June 11, 2014 by Aaronw

[Harry P.]

There is a Baja bug kit out there, pretty sure it is from Revell and was reboxed into the Blacktop warriors series. Understand it is not a particularly good kit being based on a not terribly good (and fairly old) Beetle kit. With several good beetles to start with now, it seems like an obvious modified tool option for Tamiya (probably unlikely) or Revell's new "old" Beetle.

Ok... just wanted to be sure I wasn't hallucinating!

[Ace-Garageguy]

Ummm...not so hard to build a Baja bug just like a real one...just cut stuff off of a stocker. I mean, really, it's not hard...

[Ace-Garageguy]

yeah old fords and studes and stuff will sell like hotcakes...to people who will likely be dead in another 15 years. outside that demographic (hic), no one cares a whit about them really.

that's not much of a business case there.

I still don't get this perception. I work in the 1:1 industry (I don't mean I go to shows and read mags for my knowledge base) and guys in their 30s and 40s are building old Fords. A LOT of old Fords.

[Ace-Garageguy]

pu·sil·lan·i·mous adjective \-ˈla-nə-məs\

: weak and afraid of danger

Full Definition of PUSILLANIMOUS

: lacking courage and resolution : marked by contemptible timidity

[Tom Geiger]

A bit surprised at the holes in the VW line up. Multiple kits of the 1960s Beetle, and T1 transporter but little outside of that. One or two old kits of the Karmann-Ghia, and a kit of the 1979-90 Vanagon Camper. No later model Beetle / Super Beetle (ok, one but understand it is horrible), no 1969-79 T2 Transporter (Micro bus), no Type 3 (notchback, squareback and fastback), and of course already mentioned, no VW Thing. A good Baja bug seems like another no brainer.

I may have posted earlier in this thread (and I'm not going back 11 pages to see) I'm amazed that nobody has done a 1/25 or 1/24 scale split window! Most obvious company would be Revell of Germany, especially since they did one in a larger scale already!

Another bit of Beetle trivia. Prior to the Polar Lights Herbie kit, nobody had done a Beetle with a soft top! That top piece can be used on a lot of older kits too. And I remember a feller telling me that Polar Lights had a Cali Bug version of that same Beetle as the next release but sold the company prior to getting to it!

Most of the missing VWs can be found in scale in diecast. That includes the Type 3 notchback and squareback AND the 1969 era Transporter.

Edited June 12, 2014 by Tom Geiger

[Harry P.]

pu·sil·lan·i·mous adjective \-ˈla-nə-məs\

: weak and afraid of danger

Full Definition of PUSILLANIMOUS

: lacking courage and resolution : marked by contemptible timidity

I know. That's why I posted the "$10 word" thing... I don't think Art used the word correctly, but it sounds impressive!

[Ace-Garageguy]

Edited June 12, 2014 by Ace-Garageguy

[Aaronw]

Ummm...not so hard to build a Baja bug just like a real one...just cut stuff off of a stocker. I mean, really, it's not hard...

Does that actually work with a kit? I mean that seems obvious, but what you can do with a real car often doesn't work out so well with a kit.

If it were that simple I would have thought we would see more Baja Bugs built. Maybe they aren't as popular a subject as I thought.

[martinfan5]

Post deleted

[Motor City]

How about multiple versions of the 2000 to 2005 Monte Carlo? You have the regular SS, the Supercharged SS, the V8 SS, at least 3 Special Editions, and the regular Monte Carlo without the rear spoiler? The 2006 to 2007 had revised front and rear ends, and some interior modifications, but nothing that would be difficult to tool. The emblems could be separate toolings to keep body modifications down. Decals for each Special Edition shouldn't be too difficult. There could also be a DUB version. I agree with what you are saying, Art, and I have a business degree from U of M, too .

Another model to consider would be the 1970 to 1972 Buick GS. It's been done in 1/24th scale, but not 1/25. You could make all three years of this with a simple change of the grille and front bumper. The GSX was available all three years, and a Sun Coupe (folding sunroof) was available for 1972. A Pro Stock version similar to the Red Alert Chevelle could be kitted. Another car that younger people might like would be the 1995 to 1999 Buick Riviera. I still see many around here and some are tricked out with DUB-type wheels, altered suspension, etc. The same is true of the boxy 1977 to 1989 Caprice, coupes and sedans. These are really popular in Detroit right now.

[keyser]

I have no idea what you are going on about here but I am interested in the Lotus XI you mention...got a link or a photo or something for it?

Was talking about video game cars including Lotus XI. No kit of the XI save for a Merit from 50's-60's.

Point was cars that are popular kits aren't popular in Forza 5 or other games. Relevant to reaching new builders, or casual builders that cant afford a real XI etc.

Pointless trying to make the flat-earth society understand the huge gaming/Lego market that is ignored by even Japanese companies (though they do anime kits endlessly, which I don't understand).

Guys that mutter about facespace and use flip phones will never relate to kids who have the newest smartphones at $200+ each, buy $70 Lego sets, and use Twitter, Pinterest, and Instagram. Different bunch than those who recognize 30's Fords etc. Couple guys here see it. Rest say kids don't build, that's it.

Just like Fotomat, record stores, Blockbuster, and hobby shops-dead businesses that failed to follow new customers. Not doom and gloom. More "pull your head out". #notgonnahappensadly.

Merit Lotus XI

[lysleder]

someone at least do a VW Trekker/181/Thing...lots of possibilities there.

jb

I believe that if you happen to make the calls for Hasegawa, you could consider develop the Kubelwagen tool into a Thing. That said I am not convinced it would be a huge seller. On the other hand, Revell (US) has a pretty sweet full-detail Mazda Miata tool that have not been often seen. I do believe that if it was developed into a club/race configuration it could do well. Of course, that one too would rely on marketing and exposure outside of the established "core" of the hobby to meet it's full sales potential.

[jbwelda]

despite a lot of opinions to the contrary, there is almost nothing carries over from a kubelwagen to a 181. they look similar from afar, but far from similar up close. still you would think hasegawa or someone could produce something like that and I am not so sure it would not be a big seller. they were only in the states for three years (two actually, 75 was left over 74s already here) but hey are almost as common in a lot of places (mexico, south America, Europe) as are land rovers and they were made up until the 2000s or late 1990s in mexico and I believe are still made in Europe. so I think there is huge latent interest there, maybe not for "The Thing" (its true and complete name from Volkswagen of America). and with Tamiya having a bug and ghia already I would think it would be a slam dunk for them considering they can use 9/10s of their type 1 tooling and just make a body basically and it would be good.

and thanks for that keyser, I figured out later you were talking about video games and I agree with you: there is a huge untapped market out there if only some of these (non-Japanese...they already "got it" to a large degree) model companies would look beyond their noses. I still remember in the 90s telling merchants all over about this "internet" thing and none of them were interested. stupid fad that no one will remember in 2 years was the common response. now those same people freak out when their website goes down for a day.

edit to add: and know about the Merit kit in fact built two of those and one of a resin repop with improved body (note the Merit kit, all I have seen have malformed left side headlight area, short shot on the bottom headlight surround, making it a bit of a struggle to make it look good)...I was just hoping maybe someone else brought out one of my favorite cars ever. end edit

also the part about how all these young guys are building fords in the "1:1 industry"...might be true but I doubt they build models and really in numbers how many are there nationwide, maybe a thousand? and that's pushing it...not much of a market for a company that requires sales in the millions to say solvent. old guys still monopolize that genre and the "kids" who build that style in general are much more into the true rodding spirit of "rats" than their dads billetted out 32 ford that he drives to the drive in one night a week and parks it the rest of the time in the garage. still that style is the definition of "hot rod" to most people so there will always be some market for it, its just that to a generation raised on drift cars and JDM and wonky little amerikan cars in comparison, those "classics" have less and less appeal. so it would behoove those in decision making positions in the model companies to maybe look outside their comfort zone a bit when considering new models to invest in.

Using those Revell Fast & Furious kits as examples of see how little interest there is?, is really pushing it. those things were a mess, you couldn't really build the movie car and you couldn't really build a stock version all they were was some compromised, simplified piece of garbage that most saw through from the beginning...despite that I think they had to have sold pretty well as they hung around for a long time and are common today at swap meets, so there are plenty out there. I would never bother with one myself; would rather have true JDM model like those offered by the Japanese companies.

jb

Edited June 12, 2014 by jbwelda

[Ace-Garageguy]

Funny thing is that without some actual market research...like, ya know, actually ASKING video game buyers as they exit mall game emporiums, or polling online game buyers at checkout if they'd actually be interested in buying and building models, the "huge untapped market" is purely a figment of imaginative wishful thinking. Other thing is that anybody who tells the truth about market-research knows that those consumers who answer the questions rarely do (tell the truth, that is).

And in my own experience, most companies' strategic thinking isn't really all that forward-looking... 5 years out at most, for most of them. Hard to spot long-term trends when trending these days happens as fast as mindless fish schooling.

Soooo...it kinda still makes sense from a near-term business profitability standpoint to continue milking the proven sellers to the "dead in 15 years" market, while they're still upright and spending. And streamline the time-to-market cycle, while implementing cutting edge rapid tooling technology, so as to be able to respond quickly and efficiently to a solidly identified theoretical market...with minimized risk in case it tanks.

Another salient point is that, in reality, many of the "rat rod" builders of a few years ago have actually learned some skills, some appreciation for form over shock-value, and are maturing into real hot-rod builders instead of assemblers of moving trash-piles. The 20s through 40s crowd are also building a lot of '50s and '60s cars. We had two in the shop just yesterday...a '59 Chebby and a '53 Ford Victoria, both owned by young guys sporting a lot of ink and with plenty of disposable income.

Does that actually work with a kit? I mean that seems obvious, but what you can do with a real car often doesn't work out so well with a kit.

If it were that simple I would have thought we would see more Baja Bugs built. Maybe they aren't as popular a subject as I thought.

Maybe I'm in the minority, but for me, almost EVERYTHING that works on 1:1 cars works on models just the same. I learned to build REAL cars in large part FROM building models as a kid. But that's just me...your experience may differ.

Edited June 12, 2014 by Ace-Garageguy

[Harry P.]

Market research can be a tricky thing. Remember "new Coke?"

[Ace-Garageguy]

Another little point...the VW Thing and the Karmann Ghia share the same floorpan, wider in front than the Beetle (and different from the Super Beetle too). A Ghia kit with a new-tool body, maybe? I KNOW somebody made a Ghia...I have a chassis-free one on the shelf.

[Ace-Garageguy]

Market research can be a tricky thing. Remember "new Coke?"

Yup, that's kinda my point, but you have to have SOMETHING other than gut-instinct to base a product-development budget on, eh?

[Harry P.]

Yup, that's kinda my point, but you have to have SOMETHING other than gut-instinct to base a product-development budget on, eh?

Hard to say. I'm pretty sure the big brains at Coca-Cola did some thorough marketing research before they decided that "new Coke" would be a big hit. And look what happened.

If marketing research can be that misleading, how can you ever trust it?